What this document is, and what it is not

This is the record a trustee reads to decide whether the office has been thinking or drifting. It carries twenty quarterly decisions, each with the allocation before and after, what moved and why, the mandate constraint that bound at that moment, the compliance result on the allocation adopted, whether the two desks agreed, and what the meeting said it would watch.

Every decision here is mechanical, and the office says so at the outset rather than letting a reader assume otherwise. A pre-committed rule read the point-in-time inputs available on each meeting date and produced an allocation. The rule never changed. The reason attached to each entry is the reading of the inputs that drove the rule, and it could have been written on the day by someone holding only the papers tabled at that meeting. Inventing deliberation that did not occur would be the easiest way to make this document look impressive and the fastest way to make it worthless.

The discipline is tested rather than asserted. No field in any entry other than the outcome may reference a date later than that meeting, which is checked mechanically across all twenty. Outcomes are written last and appear in no reason. Watch items are written at a meeting, never revised, and resolved forward at the next one.

The scorecard, stated plainly

The tactical programme added nothing a trustee should pay for. Of twenty decisions, 10 helped, 8 hurt and 2 were too small to tell. The net is 22bps a year before the cost of running the office and against an information ratio whose standard error is twice its value. On sixty monthly observations a result this size cannot be separated from zero, and the office does not claim otherwise.

The realised drawdown constraint bound at 15 of twenty meetings. That is the most important line in this document. From December 2022 onward the fund was carrying a peak-to-trough drawdown beyond the Board's (20.00)% limit, and the binding constraint at almost every subsequent meeting was that fact rather than any signal. The signal was rarely what set position size. The office separates two things the compliance test reports together: an allocation defect, which is remedied by choosing different weights, and a breach of the fund's own limit, which cannot be remedied by reallocation because it has already happened. 0 of 20 allocations failed on their own merits after remediation, and 2 needed remediation to get there. 17 of 20 meetings took place with the fund in breach of its drawdown limit, which is a Board matter under IPS 3.3 and 2.3 rather than a portfolio matter.

What the office got consistently wrong

8 decisions hurt. Five unrelated bad calls and five instances of the same bad call are different findings, and only the second is fixable, so the losing decisions are grouped by what they held rather than listed by date. The grouping below is computed from the record rather than asserted.

This is the useful version of the scorecard. 8 losing decisions in two groups that are the same error twice, on the one line whose out-of-sample R² against the expanding mean is most negative, is a fixable finding. Eight unrelated bad calls would not be. The recommendation removes the duration position entirely, which is the only one of these the office can act on.

The deeper cause is the one the Systematic desk identified before any of these decisions were reviewed. The programme was sized to a tracking-error budget rather than to demonstrated skill. A budget is permission to take risk, not a reason to.

The twenty decisions

1.   30 September 2021  ·  TILT  ·  FY2022

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with high inflation and accommodative policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on Listed real estate at +0.83, Commodities at +0.67, T-bills at -0.57. The reconciled allocation moved US equity (1.9)pp; US Treasury duration (1.0)pp; Commodities 1.0pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_stress.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, Listed real estate 0.825; composite score, Commodities 0.672; composite score, T-bills -0.572; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 71.3.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on T-bills stands at -0.57. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.57. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 4bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +5.05%, benchmark +5.02%. Verdict: too small to tell.

2.   31 December 2021  ·  TILT  ·  FY2022

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with high inflation and accommodative policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on US investment grade at -0.56, Listed real estate at +0.49, Commodities at +0.49. The reconciled allocation moved Developed ex-US 1.2pp; US equity (1.2)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_stress.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US investment grade -0.559; composite score, Listed real estate 0.492; composite score, Commodities 0.491; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 87.0.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.56. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Listed real estate stands at +0.49. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on T-bills stands at -0.57. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt thr — it did not occur; Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.57. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 79bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund -4.22%, benchmark -5.01%. Verdict: helped.

3.   31 March 2022  ·  TILT  ·  FY2022

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with high inflation and accommodative policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on US investment grade at -0.83, Commodities at +0.82, Developed ex-US at +0.51. The reconciled allocation moved T-bills 7.2pp; US Treasury duration (5.7)pp; US equity (2.8)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_stress.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US investment grade -0.825; composite score, Commodities 0.823; composite score, Developed ex-US 0.508; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 92.6.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.51. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on US Treasury duration stands at -0.40. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.56. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it occurred; Composite on Listed real estate stands at +0.49. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 106bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund -10.92%, benchmark -11.98%. Verdict: helped.

4.   30 June 2022  ·  UNWIND  ·  FY2022

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and accommodative policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on US investment grade at -0.91, T-bills at +0.89, US equity at -0.89. The reconciled allocation moved US Treasury duration 2.3pp; Commodities (2.2)pp; US high yield (1.4)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was leverage_gross.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US investment grade -0.915; composite score, T-bills 0.893; composite score, US equity -0.889; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 84.6.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.49. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.35. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (8.7)% against the 20% board limit.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.51. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the — it did not occur; Composite on US Treasury duration stands at -0.40. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 21bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund -7.06%, benchmark -7.27%. Verdict: helped.

5.   30 September 2022  ·  TILT  ·  FY2023

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was slowdown growth with high inflation and neutral policy, classified stagflation_risk. The composite signal was strongest on T-bills at +1.36, US equity at -0.95, US investment grade at -0.82. The reconciled allocation moved US high yield (1.2)pp; US Treasury duration 0.6pp; US investment grade 0.6pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was leverage_gross.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, T-bills 1.36; composite score, US equity -0.948; composite score, US investment grade -0.822; regime read stagflation_risk; ex ante tracking error before 76.4.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Commodities stands at +0.59. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.51. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (13.8)% against the 20% board limit.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.49. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the — it did not occur; Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.35. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past t — it did not occur; Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (8.7)% against the 20% board limit. — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (33)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +8.24%, benchmark +8.57%. Verdict: hurt.

6.   31 December 2022  ·  UNWIND  ·  FY2023

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and neutral policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on T-bills at +1.34, US investment grade at -0.86, US equity at -0.82. The reconciled allocation moved Developed ex-US (2.2)pp; US high yield 2.0pp; T-bills (1.4)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, T-bills 1.336; composite score, US investment grade -0.862; composite score, US equity -0.815; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 77.9.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.52. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Emerging markets stands at +0.44. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (11.3)% against the 20% board limit.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Commodities stands at +0.59. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the til — it occurred; Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.51. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past t — it did not occur; Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (13.8)% against the 20% board limit. — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (47)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +5.62%, benchmark +6.08%. Verdict: hurt.

7.   31 March 2023  ·  TILT  ·  FY2023

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with high inflation and neutral policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on T-bills at +1.30, US investment grade at -0.58, US equity at -0.58. The reconciled allocation moved Emerging markets 0.8pp; US Treasury duration (0.8)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, T-bills 1.298; composite score, US investment grade -0.585; composite score, US equity -0.575; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 73.7.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.58. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on US equity stands at -0.58. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (11.9)% against the 20% board limit.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.52. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past t — it did not occur; Composite on Emerging markets stands at +0.44. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past th — it did not occur; Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (11.3)% against the 20% board limit. — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (10)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +3.63%, benchmark +3.73%. Verdict: hurt.

8.   30 June 2023  ·  TILT  ·  FY2023

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with high inflation and restrictive policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on T-bills at +0.93, US investment grade at -0.54, Commodities at -0.51. The reconciled allocation moved US Treasury duration 2.0pp; US high yield (1.1)pp; Developed ex-US (0.8)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, T-bills 0.934; composite score, US investment grade -0.537; composite score, Commodities -0.506; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 61.1.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.54. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Commodities stands at -0.51. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (9.8)% against the 20% board limit.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.58. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur; Composite on US equity stands at -0.58. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt t — it did not occur; Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (11.9)% against the 20% board limit. — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 49bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund -3.00%, benchmark -3.49%. Verdict: helped.

9.   30 September 2023  ·  UNWIND  ·  FY2024

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on T-bills at +0.78, US investment grade at -0.64, Listed real estate at -0.25. The reconciled allocation moved US high yield 2.0pp; T-bills (1.0)pp; US equity (0.9)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, T-bills 0.776; composite score, US investment grade -0.644; composite score, Listed real estate -0.248; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 58.5.

Watched into the next meeting: No reading stood close enough to a threshold to be worth watching into the next meeting.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.54. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it occurred; Composite on Commodities stands at -0.51. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt — it did not occur; Peak-to-trough drawdown stands at (9.8)% against the 20% board limit. — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (33)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +9.24%, benchmark +9.57%. Verdict: hurt.

10.   31 December 2023  ·  UNWIND  ·  FY2024

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with at_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified goldilocks. The composite signal was strongest on T-bills at +0.70, US investment grade at -0.45, US equity at -0.40. The reconciled allocation moved Commodities (3.0)pp; Emerging markets 2.8pp; US high yield (2.8)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, T-bills 0.702; composite score, US investment grade -0.451; composite score, US equity -0.403; regime read goldilocks; ex ante tracking error before 52.1.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.45. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on US equity stands at -0.40. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: No reading stood close enough to a threshold to be worth watching into the next meeting. — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 10bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +5.42%, benchmark +5.32%. Verdict: helped.

11.   31 March 2024  ·  TILT  ·  FY2024

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on US investment grade at -0.56, T-bills at +0.45, Emerging markets at +0.31. The reconciled allocation moved Commodities 3.1pp; US equity (2.2)pp; US Treasury duration 2.1pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US investment grade -0.565; composite score, T-bills 0.446; composite score, Emerging markets 0.31; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 56.6.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.56. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on T-bills stands at +0.45. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.45. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur; Composite on US equity stands at -0.40. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt t — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 12bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +2.27%, benchmark +2.14%. Verdict: helped.

12.   30 June 2024  ·  TILT  ·  FY2024

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was slowdown growth with at_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified soft_landing. The composite signal was strongest on US investment grade at -0.51, Emerging markets at +0.42, T-bills at +0.35. The reconciled allocation moved Commodities (2.6)pp; US Treasury duration 2.2pp; Emerging markets 1.5pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US investment grade -0.51; composite score, Emerging markets 0.421; composite score, T-bills 0.354; regime read soft_landing; ex ante tracking error before 58.3.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.51. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Emerging markets stands at +0.42. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.56. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur; Composite on T-bills stands at +0.45. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt th — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 11bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +6.29%, benchmark +6.18%. Verdict: helped.

13.   30 September 2024  ·  TILT  ·  FY2025

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was slowdown growth with below_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified soft_landing. The composite signal was strongest on US equity at -0.39, US Treasury duration at +0.38, Listed real estate at +0.34. The reconciled allocation moved US Treasury duration 5.7pp; T-bills (3.3)pp; US equity (2.4)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US equity -0.391; composite score, US Treasury duration 0.376; composite score, Listed real estate 0.342; regime read soft_landing; ex ante tracking error before 79.4.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US equity stands at -0.39. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on US Treasury duration stands at +0.38. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.51. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur; Composite on Emerging markets stands at +0.42. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past th — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (25)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund -2.88%, benchmark -2.64%. Verdict: hurt.

14.   31 December 2024  ·  UNWIND  ·  FY2025

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on US investment grade at -0.42, US Treasury duration at +0.29, Emerging markets at +0.28. The reconciled allocation moved Commodities 4.7pp; US Treasury duration (3.9)pp; Emerging markets (1.4)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US investment grade -0.419; composite score, US Treasury duration 0.292; composite score, Emerging markets 0.282; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 63.9.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.42. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US equity stands at -0.39. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt t — it did not occur; Composite on US Treasury duration stands at +0.38. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line pas — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 32bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +1.74%, benchmark +1.42%. Verdict: helped.

15.   31 March 2025  ·  TILT  ·  FY2025

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on US equity at -1.15, US Treasury duration at +0.74, Commodities at +0.41. The reconciled allocation moved US equity (4.3)pp; US Treasury duration 1.9pp; US high yield 1.8pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US equity -1.152; composite score, US Treasury duration 0.744; composite score, Commodities 0.411; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 85.7.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Commodities stands at +0.41. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Developed ex-US stands at -0.35. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US investment grade stands at -0.42. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (82)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +7.30%, benchmark +8.12%. Verdict: hurt.

16.   30 June 2025  ·  TILT  ·  FY2025

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was stall growth with below_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified disinflationary_slump. The composite signal was strongest on US equity at -0.91, US Treasury duration at +0.67, Emerging markets at +0.55. The reconciled allocation moved US Treasury duration 4.8pp; Commodities (3.1)pp; US investment grade 1.6pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US equity -0.906; composite score, US Treasury duration 0.672; composite score, Emerging markets 0.547; regime read disinflationary_slump; ex ante tracking error before 100.1.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Emerging markets stands at +0.55. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. US Treasury duration at 21.0% sits within one point of its 22% ceiling.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Commodities stands at +0.41. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the til — it did not occur; Composite on Developed ex-US stands at -0.35. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (17)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +5.80%, benchmark +5.97%. Verdict: hurt.

17.   30 September 2025  ·  UNWIND  ·  FY2026

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and restrictive policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on Emerging markets at +0.69, US equity at -0.62, US Treasury duration at +0.56. The reconciled allocation moved US Treasury duration (3.8)pp; Commodities 3.0pp; US equity 1.9pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, Emerging markets 0.692; composite score, US equity -0.621; composite score, US Treasury duration 0.558; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 72.0.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US Treasury duration stands at +0.56. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.33. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Emerging markets stands at +0.55. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past th — it occurred; US Treasury duration at 21.0% sits within one point of its 22% ceiling. — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 13bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +2.80%, benchmark +2.67%. Verdict: helped.

18.   31 December 2025  ·  TILT  ·  FY2026

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and neutral policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on Emerging markets at +0.71, US equity at -0.67, Developed ex-US at +0.57. The reconciled allocation moved Developed ex-US 4.3pp; US equity (2.2)pp; Emerging markets (1.8)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, Emerging markets 0.709; composite score, US equity -0.668; composite score, Developed ex-US 0.571; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 78.1.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.57. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on US Treasury duration stands at +0.56. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on US Treasury duration stands at +0.56. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line pas — it did not occur; Composite on Listed real estate stands at -0.33. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past t — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 100bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +0.88%, benchmark -0.12%. Verdict: helped.

19.   31 March 2026  ·  UNWIND  ·  FY2026

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was slowdown growth with high inflation and neutral policy, classified stagflation_risk. The composite signal was strongest on Emerging markets at +0.61, US equity at -0.60, Developed ex-US at +0.42. The reconciled allocation moved Developed ex-US (2.3)pp; US equity 2.0pp; Emerging markets (1.9)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, Emerging markets 0.612; composite score, US equity -0.6; composite score, Developed ex-US 0.42; regime read stagflation_risk; ex ante tracking error before 74.5.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.42. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on T-bills stands at -0.40. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.57. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the — it did not occur; Composite on US Treasury duration stands at +0.56. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line pas — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: (81)bps of active return over the 3 months held. Fund +9.26%, benchmark +10.08%. Verdict: hurt.

20.   30 June 2026  ·  TILT  ·  FY2026

Reason. The regime read on the vintages available at this date was expansion growth with above_target inflation and neutral policy, classified overheat. The composite signal was strongest on US Treasury duration at +0.40, Emerging markets at +0.39, T-bills at -0.38. The reconciled allocation moved T-bills 1.7pp; US Treasury duration (1.6)pp; Emerging markets (0.8)pp. The binding constraint at this meeting was drawdown_realised.

Readings on the table that day: composite score, US Treasury duration 0.403; composite score, Emerging markets 0.389; composite score, T-bills -0.383; regime read overheat; ex ante tracking error before 73.5.

Watched into the next meeting: Composite on US Treasury duration stands at +0.40. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold. Composite on Emerging markets stands at +0.39. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the tilt threshold.

The previous meeting's item, resolved here: Composite on Developed ex-US stands at +0.42. A move beyond ++0.60 would carry the line past the — it did not occur; Composite on T-bills stands at -0.40. A move beyond -0.60 would carry the line past the tilt thr — it did not occur

Outcome, recorded after the fact and used in no reason above: 0bps of active return over the 0 months held. Fund +0.00%, benchmark +0.00%. Verdict: too small to tell.